in association with NewcastleStats.com

For the first SOTW of the new season we’ve decided to investigate how previous NUFC managers have performed in their opening Premier League fixtures. That is to say:

Who is The Man when it comes to that tricky first fixture of the season?

Table 1.0: Results of opening fixtures by manager

This simple table shows the basic information, but if we went off this alone then Glenn Roeder could be said to have the best record with a 100% opening day success rate. I’ll let my bias show and ask the question: surely some mistake?! Let’s disprove that claim with ’science’*. Take a peek at the chart below…

Chart 1.1: Weighted scoring of managers based on opening fixtures



This chart takes into account whether the opening fixture was played home or away, the final league position of the opposition played—which gives some indication of the true value of the result—as well as the outcome of the match itself. Big Sam’s score takes into account his first opponent, Bolton’s, final placing last season of 7th.

Some details: an away match is weighted as being approximately 20% more difficult than the equivalent home match (see below); positional modifier is very rough, based on the average team that season and number places finished above or below that team.

Home Advantage

Studies of the Premier League have shown that, when factoring the quality of opposition, home sides score approximately 37% more goals than the opposition, teams score about 70% less goals on the road than at home, and that referees are more likely to favour the home side.

Top flight football statistics show that away teams win only about 30% of the time.

As such, the travelling team has an immediate disadavantage of (very) approximately 20% in terms of winning the match. The chances of a draw are not significantly different.

See: The Times’ Fink Labs (1, 2); studies by P.Dawson et al (summarised) and R.Boyko (summarised).

Summary
At first glance, it looked like the Cockney who never made excuses had taken this week’s prize but—thanks to some skillful number-massaging—this week’s winner is: Big Sam Allardyce! A sign of things to come, hopefully.

* No actual science involved

Until next week, Keep The Faith. NS

Thanks for joining us this week. If you have a suggestion for Stat Of The Week and would like to see your name up here somewhere, let us know your idea!