A Glass Half Full of Pessimism
By Ben Letby On Tue 10 Jul 2007 |
Amid thoughts of revolution and success, I think we should take the time to remember the club we are dealing with. Change is not always good- even when made with the very finest of intentions and whilst recent changes at Newcastle United have not been on such a scale as are happening now, we have a long way to go to bring success to Tyneside…
Take a look back to the tenure of Graeme Souness at St. James’ Park. By the start of his first full season in charge, the board had dished out over £45.5million in transfer funds and brought in three players on a free. This came after Bobby Robson had found homes for sums up to a total of £79.29million during his time at the helm, not to mention seven free signings. All this business indicates the motions of a club trying to change and bring its success-starved fans some silverware – but where are we seven years down the line? Trying to start again, again. If nearly one hundred and fifty million pounds (including that spent by Glenn Roeder) worth of players can’t bring success, why should we be so excited about all our activity in the transfer market this time around?
When the manager seems sound and the squad seems strong, the next port of call in recent times has been “sack the boardâ€. This is fair enough because Freddy Shepherd and his merry men have been pretty much the only thing that has stayed the same at the club in the last few years. But now they have gone and good riddance to them, but what will this really mean for the club?
There is one overriding factor that has lead to a lack of success for Newcastle United in recent times. Our players are here for money, and new players come here for money. Big Sam has raved about how he has convinced players to turn down other clubs to join Newcastle United – all he is has done is wave Mr Ashley’s cheque book in their faces and told them, “Revolution at St. James’, come over for a bitâ€. Why would any footballer turn down the chance to play in one of the top leagues in the world for a team who has just won the UEFA cup twice in a row and challenged for the league title in the process? Ask David Rozehnal – and check his bank balance in four years time. All these new signings say “the manager convinced Newcastle was the place for meâ€, but how on this earth was Michael Owen attracted by Graeme Souness? How was Damien Duff impressed with Glenn Roeder? Why did Geremi move here for Allardyce? They didn’t.
We’ve been linked with moves for Deco, Raul and Edmilson – all aging superstars – they cannot be used for the new foundations of a football club looking to bring long term success. They will simply serve to add star names to the wage bill and the list of notable former players on Wikipedia. Sorry to be frank.
So what can we do?
We need to build from the very bottom. Arsenal are doing that right now – they’ve taken a step back to go forward by investing heavily in their youth system. Their rivals Spurs are doing it too by buying little known players from other countries or promising players who are truly hungry for success. Berbatov, Dawson, Malbranque, Zokora, Bale…the list goes on. Another example is Everton. Victor Anichebe and James Vaughan have followed on from Leon Osman to come through the Everton youth system and find themselves on the team sheet more often than not. Joleon Lescott was bought from the Championship just one year ago and is now a key player in an increasingly successful team. Tim Cahill is arguably one of the best midfielders in the league but he came from lowly Millwall. Even star winger Mikel Arteta was relatively unassuming when he joined from Real Sociedad in 2005.
Out of the twelve clubs who finished above us in the league last season and every team we played in the UEFA Cup, only four of them have a higher wage bill than us. Those four are Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United. We are nowhere near as good as them.
Far be it from me to dismiss Allardyce and his new regime at this early stage, but let us all stay calm and keep our feet on the ground and see if we will finally find some long-term consistency at this club or if, quite possibly, nothing changes at all.
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First - Bluf Purdi - remarks on sacking the managers. Too bloody right. Couldn’t agree more.
Second - we really should be optimistic, not because I believe big Sam can bring us CL football regularly, but because we are in a much better position than we were 12 months ago. Not difficult I know, but it’s still progress.
Big Sam has really impressed me with his philosophy, and there are reasons why we should be thankful he’s here.
He can attract players, get the best out of them, can motivate those not playing well (just imagine - Luque, Carr and Baba could be our star men this season!) and he’s not afraid to bring on the youths and give them a chance. Good stuff.
But there’s one thing the club should look at and it’s the youth set-up. It may be a personnel thing, it may be a lack of talented players, but let’s just copy Arsenal etc.
The tyneside area’s a huge region and we’re the only club in it - we could have a conveyor belt of talent if we wanted. Other clubs like the London ones, Midlands, Manchester and Liverpool all fight it out with other clubs. That’s a huge advantage we have over many of our rivals (in terms of support too) that we should take advantage of.
Also regarding personnel - sorry but I just don’t feel safe with Terry Mac, Pearson and Clarkie at the club. They’re the old regime - get Sam’s men in.
Another reason to be cheerful is the fact our new owner is british. Dont want to sound like Basil Fawlty but you just never know with foreign owners, will they stick around when the going gets tough. Just feel there’s more chance of Ashley doing that than the Pompey guy or the yanks.
As for progress, we need a mix of youth and experience - and yes we do need star players on big wages if we are to break the so-called top 4.
But let’s face it when we do we’re at an advantage over every other club because we’ve the biggest fan base, the most passionate support and the biggest potential. Just imagine if what’d happened to Liverpool under Shankly had happened to us 40 years ago. With our support we’d have been a true european giant, maybe the biggest club in England.
We sometime underestimate our size. Let’s not - we’re massive. And we need to think big to get to where we belong. Not a partizan argument - if you look back at it and try to be reasoned anyone can see that we are streets ahead of Spurs, Villa, Everton and Chelski and could easily match Arsenal and Liverpool.
Sent in on: July 12th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
Some good points made by everyone here. It seems that there are not too many expecting Sam to win the League next year or in the next 5 years - which is probably right. I worry about buying old players since they reflect short term gains. They also reflect Big Sam’s philosophy at Bolton. Unfortunately we are not Bolton, we are bigger than Bolton, and we are expecting to break into the Big 4 at some time. The immediate philosophy, to me anyway, is that a top 6 target is our goal from now until the foreseeable future. It will be interesting to see if Big Sam will manage the extra jump needed to get in amongst the big boys since he has failed so many times before. That’s what poor Roeder was going on about in his recent rant, albeit ham-fistedly. But Big Sam is lucky. Not only did he have a conniving back-stabbing Chairman get him his current job but the back-stabbing conniving fat controller was sacked before Big Sam had to do the “him or me” ultimatum. Even better he has only got to compare himself to what Roeder did last season.
Sent in on: July 11th, 2007 at 11:31 pm
An indication of how we need to keep our feet on the ground. I’m not for all of your methods and technicalities, but the ’stay calm’ factor of your article perhaps needs to be outlined further at this time; at this rate there are a large percentage of supporters that will be disappointed come May. Good read.
Sent in on: July 11th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
The difference is he hasn’t spent much really and he has proved he is an excellent coach. Souness’ buys were actually good (Parker, emre, luque and owen) but the club needs good management and that is what we have got.
Sent in on: July 11th, 2007 at 8:21 am
I fully agree with those that think we should be very patient with Allardyce, we should. He’s got a proven track record of building a side and meeting his ambitions over a certain length of time.
However, I often have to laugh at those that moan about previous sackings. Are people seriously suggesting if we were a bit more patient with Gullit, Souness and Roeder, we’d be any closer to success? It’s the very fact that we were NOT patient with them that has kept us in the league. The problem in the past hasn’t been sacking managers too early, but hiring managers with no track record of success, as well as hiring simpletons.
Give Big Sam time, but the previous sackings were needed, not sure why the point is always brought up as if they weren’t.
Sent in on: July 11th, 2007 at 1:29 am
I agree with most of you guys’ points. And I’m very excited and optimistic towards the up-comiing season. I believe we have to be VERY patient with both SAM and the board, and I’ve been waiting for the right moment to say this, but say we finish 10th this year, and fans wants the manager out, and we sack him for that, well to be honest I’d be so ashamed that I probably won’t be a toon fan anymore - ever again. Why?
Simply because we sack and sack and sack managers before even giving them a chance to prove, and then what? We get another one, and another one etc etc. we sack, sack and sack… and complain…
One guy wrote that it took Ferguson, what? 5-6 years to turn manure into a champion side. And then n’castle fans just sit there,whining their a**es of, “our manager is so crap, look at the top four” blah blah blah.
Now for once, take-off and f-ing fly for all I care, truely… be happy and optimistic…. but also be patient, very patient… All good things come to those who wait.
Sent in on: July 11th, 2007 at 12:17 am
We’ve got a new manager and a new owner, so there’s no reason to feel pessimistic that the mistakes of the past are going to be repeated. In fact, so far, there’s every sign of a more professional and patient approach.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Let us stay calm - I agree that we need to pay ‘over the odds’ to get these players but until we are sucsessful and are playing at a higher level week in week out then that is what we must do I’m afraid to get these players here - at least now we have a guy with geniune financial clout behind him to help us do this and who seems 100% behind the manager, then yes let us have some hope for the future and now is perhaps the time our comatose giant of a club awakes begins sparring with the ‘invicible top 4′ and coming out on top.
It has happen some time - please sooner rather than later - we have all waited long enough!
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 8:10 pm
To Ben,
I’m not interested in Barcelona. I’m interested in Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool the only premiership clubs who can equal or better our potential both on and off the pitch. Our wage bill is £52million to their £80million and upwards. We’re not in Europe and we don’t have the dizzy lights of London to attract the top players so we have to pay a bit more. Are you seriously suggesting we should drop further behind these 4?
Since we’re both toon supporters I don’t want to argue with you mate but I think considering we have a new owner with £1 billion cash in his bank account then Chris Mort and Big Sam are doing a fantastic job of keeping the lid on the spending (a couple of million so far) and just getting us back to where we were post Robson. The young kids can come later for me.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
Ben…this is the first time in the last couple months I read about “Pessimism” about Newcastle United progress into one of the top club in Europe.
Maybe you are having “Failure Paranoid Syndrome” or you are not “Genuine” Toon Army?
There’s no way “Toon Army” would have such that pessimism because we are not that glory hunters like supporters, yet we need success and we deserve that, but to start a new season with pessimism is like we have been relegated before the season is even start to kick-off!
I think you must support whatever happened to the club, the managerial changes, and or even now the boards that have been totally refresh. I think, this is Optimism that you should write about, because the old boards of directors that probably equal to the word of pessimism now have been axed.
Arsenal investing heavily in their youth system? Give me a break! I see they have tried to lure our “release clause scandal” Obafemi Martins, and Wenger also busy looking for more French players to their squad. Have landed £7.5M Auxerre defender Bakari Sagna £8m, now they may try to get Fra Croatian striker Eduardo Da Silva, £2m Polish goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski and £2m Norwegian defender Harvard Nordveit. Youth system you said? If you said like that because they are not spending much last season it’s because they’ve very limited budget after the move to the Emirates Stadium.
Spurs and Everton has supplied their first team with the products from their youth system? We also DID that in the name of Steven Taylor. Have you ever heard or read about him ben?
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 5:37 pm
There is nothing wrong with optimism but I think that too many Toon fans are expecting a huge amount next season. Allardyce seems to be making the rights moves and we are bringing good players in but that will by no means guarantee instant success. Allardyce himself is looking at the situation realistically and has informed the media of this. Yes, the team is all change at the moment but that doesn’t mean we’re suddenly going to become a fantastic team overnight.
The fact is that even if we bring in many brilliant players over the summer (the current four signings are decent but not spectacular) the team aren’t going to instantly become a top four side. If Allardyce is addressing the situation properly (and I believe he is) then he will recognise the need to build. I fear that if we don’t get much real success next season (and realistically this’ll be the case) the fans will turn on Allardyce. I think a top 10 finish is what we need to aim for at the moment and anything more should be a bonus.
Allardyce is a great manager but he isn’t a miracle worker. It’s fine to be optimistic but I think that we all, as loyal Newcastle fans should be patient. Charging the manager out of the door after one mediocre season doesn’t work, we’ve seen that. I’m pretty sure Sam has a vision but he will need time and NUFC cannot continue to pursue the policy of sacking managers as soon as they hit a rocky patch (granted though, Souness and Roeder should never have been signed in the first place) and fan pressure has a lot to do with this.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 1:01 pm
Admittedly, we have thrown bucket loads at trying to buy success so a more low-key approach may be what we need but at the same time, did Souness or Roeder (or even Robson to a degree) have as successful a buying strategy as Allardyce? Would giving him a bigger budget affect his approach to buying different players?
Either way, all players are now interested in money and it can be argued this is more important than success in modern football unfortunately, however, to attract the top players, more often than not, success and other factors must be considered; money can’t determine all. Duff, Geremi and Owen you mention - we probably offered a lot more than others but you have to consider: none were playing regularly, Newcastle is still a fairly large club and in some cases we were the ones who provide the best deal for all parties involved.
Investment in young talent and youth development is key but buying players with desire isn’t enough, look at Everton, all of them has desire and wanted to win but ability is equally as important, that is why Everton haven’t broken into the top 4 – they don’t have the quality. A combination of signing workers and quality is crucial (even better is if these players have a mixture of the two), it’s just like a mixture of youth and experience, you can’t rely on one, it doesn’t work.
Perhaps, I’m getting sidetracked here, my feeling is that people are optimistic about the season coming up, it’s not even halfway through July and we have 4 new faces; people are excited because there are signs of progress now with time still left to build on what we’ve already got. We are at last showing signs of planning during a pre-season.
You see the signing of Deco, Raul and/or Edmilson as a negative due to their age, but they are top players and could be helpful in teaching the youth we have and add their game for when they come through, as well as the fact that they just might be able to help us win a trophy, in which case, better players can be attracted and money is slightly less of an issue.
Long term success is important, fair enough, but what about now? Sometimes the best way to be successful is a short term approach and then look at a long term strategy, i.e. in our case, try to find success and after that we will have a base to build on to ensure that this success is continued.
My opinion is that I can’t really see us breaking into the top 4 this season, maybe next year; players need to gel, Big Sam needs to implement his own ideas on the squad and also the fact that the squad still doesn’t look good enough. I don’t think the A-Team (Ashley and Allardyce) will bring success this season, perhaps the Carling Cup and a top 5 finish if we really go for it, but I think this season is about getting us back on a stable base to build on from there.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 11:42 am
I take what you are saying in that theres a lot of fans thinking that we can now go and get in the Champions League, when we clearly cant yet. However, I do believe that we can trust Big Sam. if Roeder brought in Deco, I would not be convinced, but if Big Sam does I do trust him.
With regards to money, I believe that if Big Sam can get players then we are in business. I don’t like players who are motivated by money, but lets remember that we came 13th last season, and without money Im sure we wouldnt have got anywhere near the likes of Barton, Viduka, Rozenal etc. If we can get in the top 8, I will be happy. Its too much to expect Uefa Cup of a new squad, new manager, and new board all together for a new season!
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Absolute rubbish!
1) Youth is not the only way forward, need mix of experience and youth, which I believe we are starting to build, based on last seasons youth and some new experienced players coming in.
You say Arsenal and Spurs are doing the right things, yet Arsenal still have one of the highest wage bills and Spurs have already forked out about 25-30million on players in pre season. 10million for Gareth Bale? As an unproven player in the Premiership I take that as a risk not astute buying. He may well become a great player but no doubt he will have demanded wages similar to that of Rozenhal. Also Berbatov, firstly he cost around 11 million, he didnt just grow on a tree outside White Hart Lane. Secondly, he will most likely be on massive wages now since he penned a new deal after one season in the Prem, if he wasnt he would go to Man utd or arsenal or Chelsea.
Thats the way it is- you need to pay top money to get and then keep top players (you’re saying one thing criticising high wages and big spending then another about bringing in top class “young” or “hungry” players- complete contradiction).
2) Top class players demand top class wages wherever they are going. This will always be the case, if you want to get to the top you have to fork out the wages. However after getting rid of all our surplus and so far not spending so big in transfers we have significantly reduced our outlay. Also with Mike Ashley in charge now we have a very successful businessman (you dont become a billionaire for nothing). Now this means he will not spend pots of money to get nothing in return, Im sure he knows better than anyone what it takes to make the club successful!
3) All money spent was in the past under different ownership and inept management. I would say we wipe the slate clean now and forget about the past. Yes we’ve spent a boat load of money and it hasn’t actually won us anything, however this could be put down to the fact that we have had so many managers and none have been given a proper chance to prove themselves. Look at ferguson it took him 6-7 years to change Man Utd into championship winning side!
Rather than writing opinionated articles based on loose facts and probably something you read in a paper I think people like yourself should put more effort into actually supporting the team. People need to stop telling us to be calm, there is reason to be excited and it is because we are all like this that we are some of the most passionate fans in the world! Of course there is expectation, but there’s that everywhere. At the end of the day the management and players are professionals and it is their job to perform under pressure, that is why they are paid!
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 10:50 am
To Phil,
“We have the highest wage bill cause we have the 13th highest turnover in Europe”
Barcelona are in the top four for highest turnovers and have the same wage bill as us. The success doesn’t even compare.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 10:36 am
Ben,
C’mon lad, have some faith in the new regime. If you haven’t already noticed, there are changes in every level of the club. Manager, players and even the board! Ashley has pulled in his own people to run the show, surely that’s something to be optimistic about ya? So far, players that BS signed are quality players who are are at their peak, the likes of Viduka and Geremi who came in free.
Our production line is not doing that bad, even last season, Mourinho wished that he had a similar good setup at Chelsea. We have the likes of Ramage, Carrol, Edgar. In the first team, we have Taylor and N’Zogbia. If you want to have a cosmopolitan setup of youth players like Arsenal, then maybe we should get their talent scouts.
Something is brewing on the horizon for Newcastle and if we the Toon Army are not excited bout our own club, then the question is who should?
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 9:12 am
I knew nufc FANS WERE PESSIMISTIC but this article is ridiculous give BSA a chance the players he has brought in so far are excellent. I agree about having a top class youth system but we need to get back intro Europe now & if that means aging stars then so be it.
Wake up & get behind BSA & the new owners
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 8:43 am
I don’t think Sam will be interested in trophy signings, if we do get Deco it will be because he genuinely feels he’ll be worth a place in the team.
Yes we may have a high wage bill but I suspect teams like Everton and Spurs, that next season we need to be competing with, will find that unless they start paying wages on a par with the top 4 and ourselves they’ll struggle to hang on to their better players.
Berbatov could earn double, maybe triple what he’s getting at Spurs - surely that sort of disparity would be enough to make any player want to move on.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 8:30 am
To be able to lure the stars that are not yet aging and are in their prime you need to have a winning team first. In order to do that, you need to buy quality players with experience to take you there. Its a stepping stone that needs to be used.
Lets not forget that the Youth of Newcastle United have been knocking on the door of the FA Youth Cup Final for 2 years running losing out to 2 very good teams in Man City and Liverpool. Here’s hoping 3 or 4 can bridge the gap like Taylor and Ameobi did.
There is nothing wrong with optimism pre-season, its what makes football the wonderful sport it is - True, don’t get carried away but we all need this optimism following the disappointments of last season and the tailing off during the final months. You don’t want to be heading into August with the memories of April and May fresh in your head.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 7:59 am
Let’s walk then run….
Fact…. BSA is an expert at bringing in ageing stars and either rekindling or keeping their shining light bright. Ask Gary Speed.
Fact…. Bolton have been punching their weight in and around the Top 6 now for a few years to make it more than a fluke. (It is interesting to see how they will fare without BSA.)
What Sam has done so far (Barton for Parker + £1.2M, Viduka, Geremi, Rozza) is not going to win the league BUT follows the same strategies that he did at Bolton.
More improvements will come.
So… be patient…be cool….
If this is a season that gets us back in Top 6, I for one will be satisfied. Anything better and I’ll be over the moon
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 5:56 am
Yes we do need young players and a healthy youth team for the future, but we also need players that are capable of getting us in the top 6 and keeping us there for the 2007 season.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 5:36 am
I know what you’re trying to say but…. it’s bollocks! Your sums don’t add up and are the scaremongering that we get from mackems, spurs fans and the like. Yes the outlay since Robson arrived has been £150 million but you neglect to say that we’ve brought nearly £80 million in and the current squad is worth another £80 million. Even if that didn’t add up then an outlay of £10-£15 million per season would be fairly reasonable for a team aiming to compete in the top 6 and with the TV revenues that come in these days.
We have the highest wage bill cause we have the 13th highest turnover in Europe and that was before Ashley brought his shirt selling expertise along!
Your article is speculating on players mentioned in the papers but if we just concentrate on those we’ve brought in the door so far then none of them have been glory signings and all would appear sound buys. If we do bring in a Deco or Guily cause they want to test themselves in the premiership before they finish their careers then I for one trust that BS can fit them in to the system messing things up. Before we can start bringing in too many of the 17 year old prospects we need to plug the holes we already have (notably in the defence) and make the ship seaworthy again. Just my 2p worth! We already have some decent prospects of our own anyway…
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 3:41 am
“…but let us all stay calm and keep our feet on the ground and see if we will finally find some long-term consistency at this club…”
Not to dismiss those who are being optimistic (saying we can reach 4th) given our good fortunes over the past month, but this is what we should be aiming for.
With Consistency, we’ll be able to lure the bigger players before there twilight years. I know we’ve waited too long as it is for some silverware, but I’d rather we be consistently challenging for trophies than winning a Carling Cup and repeating these last 3 years after our aging stars are past it.
Success will come with stability, it bloody has to.
Great article, Ben.
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 3:23 am
Ben Letby,
I believe what you have said is too pre mature at this time. What is wrong with believing that SAM and the new owner will bring success.
SAM has done what most previous manager didn’t do which is improving our defense. All the while we have brought in mids and strikers.
Our new owner has given us new hope and what’s wrong in telling players that we want to get, that our new owner has a vision that will bring success and flashing his money.
Yes, keep our feet to the ground but also have faith in the new regime at St.James’ Park.
Amos
Sent in on: July 10th, 2007 at 3:13 am