It’s hard to believe that it’s only been just over a month (May 23rd, to be exact) since the announcement was made that Mike Ashley had bought Sir John Hall’s shares, and was launching a takeover bid. Not only was the announcement totally unexpected, but so has been the pace with which the takeover has proceeded. Shepherd’s position had seemed so secure that his previous declaration that the club was ‘impossible to buy’ had rung depressingly true. Now, Ashley is poised to take the club back into private ownership.

Ashley had developed a reputation as an aggressive businessman who had a habit of ‘parking his tanks on other people’s lawns’, and in many ways his acquisition of our club feels more like a coup than a takeover. In military style, he operated in complete secrecy and by the time that his opponent knew what was happening, he was isolated and defenceless.

Shepherd at first made a defiant statement, and it seemed more in character for him to put up some kind of a fight. However, his only realistic way of stopping Ashley was to put in a counter-offer, and he had no way of raising the resources to do this, having already put the club into debt to the tune of £80 million.

In the absence of a counter-offer, Ashley was certain to achieve a 51% stake, and although Shepherd may have been tempted to retain his 29% stake and deprive Ashley of the means of taking the club into private ownership, in fact this made no business sense. He would have been left with a shareholding that would have been of no real worth to anyone but Ashley, and which would therefore inevitably have declined in value.

It’s also worth remembering that this stake was actually in the hands of Shepherd Offshore, the company jointly owned by Freddie and his brother Bruce. Whilst the Chairman may have felt the urge to fight back through wounded pride, it’s unlikely that his brother would have felt the sacrifice worthwhile.

And so it soon became apparent that Shepherd had little choice but to bail out. His public stance was that he considered this to be in the interests of the club, but it is tempting to speculate as to whether he would have been quite as accommodating if Ashley had approached the takeover in the same manner as Polygon or Belgravia – that is, through open negotiation with both Shepherd and the Halls.

Given his statement that he would not sell under any circumstances, I find it impossible to believe that he wouldn’t have put up a fight. Whether ultimately he could have succeeded is a different matter, because the Halls would surely have sold out regardless. Nevertheless, he could have spun the issue out for a long and disruptive period. However, as we have seen, Ashley’s style is not to indulge in that kind of messing around if he can help it, and he saw no reason to try and negotiate a surrender when it was far quicker to simply smash down the walls.

Despite the club’s decline over the last three years, I still believe that Shepherd saw himself as the man to turn things round. Although there were richer players around, he had probably convinced himself that the proposed joint hotel and conference centre venture would keep us up with the other major clubs financially. He also had huge confidence that a fit Michael Owen would have us shooting up the table. He had invested a lot in Owen’s capture and took great pride in it. Unfortunately, it says a lot about Shepherd’s limited understanding of the game that he thought that a goalscorer was all the team needed.

The other great unknown here is whether Allardyce had any inkling of what was in the pipeline, when he accepted the job. He had turned the job down once, and possibly twice before, and the likeliest reasons were Shepherd’s reputation for interference in managerial decisions, and the continuing influence of Shearer behind the scenes. The story is that a previous interview had floundered because Shepherd had insisted on Shearer being involved.

It seems that, at the third time of asking, Allardyce changed his mind, with little reason to believe that the situation within the club was any different. In fact, if anything, things were in an even worse state than before, with rival clubs being taken over and enjoying new financial resources. Why did Allardyce do it? He has denied knowledge of Ashley’s plans, but the circumstances must create an area of doubt here.

Anyway, here we are, poised at the dawn of a new era. What are the prospects for success under the mysterious Mr Ashley?

I feel there are many, many reasons to feel encouraged. Ashley is a genuine football fan, with a long-term business record in the field of sports. He will want to win, and not just settle for running a profitable business. Being British, we can feel confident that he will be at home with the characteristics of our professional game and with Premiership football in particular. In a real sense, he’ll know what he’s getting into. His interest is unlikely to decline after a couple of seasons (as appears to be the case with Abramovich) and he is unlikely to be taken aback by the demanding nature of the typical English football fan (as appears to be the case at Liverpool).

Unlike the Glazers, Ashley has been able to take over the club by his own funds, and, far from plunging the club deeper in debt, will actually be able to swallow our liabilities with ease. Money will be available, and there will not be undue pressure to sell players before we can buy. I am sure he will want to work within a budget, but he can take a long-term view.

Exactly how much money Ashley will provide for transfers is not known, and the various figures of £40 – 50 million seem like pure guesswork. Realistically, unless a club is prepared to shell out vast, Chelsea-like amounts, you cannot quickly buy a trophy-winning team any more. Success has to be built up from solid foundations, and the early signs are that the pace of change will be sensible and incremental.

In many ways, I feel that Ashley has come along at just the right time. As a club, and as supporters, I sense that we have matured with all the ups and downs of the last 10 years. Getting into a challenging position after so many years of mediocrity induced an over-excitement that turned into nervousness, which later turned to anger when a decline set in. I feel we have learned the value of patience, and the players, the manager and the new owner will not be put under undue pressure to succeed right away.

We must also face the reality that standards are rising all the time, the big four are still in a league of their own, and lots of other clubs are enjoying new investment. Not everyone can win, and we may have to be content with simply hauling ourselves up into a competitive position.

Things are changing in the Premiership, and it is a big relief that we are not going to be left behind. The old-style Chairman – the local businessman and life-long fan as exemplified by Shepherd and Ellis – is on the way out at the top level. Foreign or corporate ownership is on the way in. This is not entirely positive – the local man often had a passion for achieving success and a feel for the community, even though this passion sometimes led to an over-involvement on the football side, and a lack of readiness to listen to outside opinion. There are also dangers that some of the newcomers may turn out to be opportunists who are out for a fast buck.

But in many ways, I feel that we will get the best of both worlds with Ashley. We will get the financial resources and professionalism of the corporate approach. He seems content to appoint people who he can trust, and to supervise them from a distance. He does not seek the glory of the high profile local hero. At the same time, I feel that he is in it to win it. He seems to have reached a point in his business life where he is no longer focused solely on acquiring more wealth. I sense that he also now wishes to indulge his competitive, sporting spirit in an arena where ultimate success is not measured by money.

In many ways, I don’t feel that we have been a lucky club over the years, but I’m very hopeful that this has now changed. I can’t repress the feeling that Mike Ashley and Newcastle United are made for one another.

Bob Yule